Jeevan Prasad :
1. Jaffna 67%
2. Vanni 73%
3. Batti 71%
4. Ampara 77.5%
5. Trinco 77%
6. Kurunegala 83%
7. Puttalam 74%
8. Anuradhapura 83%
9. Polonnaruwa 84%
10. Badulla 83%
11. Monaragala 84%
12. Ratnapura 85%
13. Kegalle 84%
14. Colombo 83%
15. Gampaha 83%
16. Kalutara 85%
17. Kandy 83%
18. Matale 82.5
19. Nuwaraeliya 82%
20. Galle 83.5%
21. Matara 83.5%
22. Hambanthota 84%
2. Vanni 73%
3. Batti 71%
4. Ampara 77.5%
5. Trinco 77%
6. Kurunegala 83%
7. Puttalam 74%
8. Anuradhapura 83%
9. Polonnaruwa 84%
10. Badulla 83%
11. Monaragala 84%
12. Ratnapura 85%
13. Kegalle 84%
14. Colombo 83%
15. Gampaha 83%
16. Kalutara 85%
17. Kandy 83%
18. Matale 82.5
19. Nuwaraeliya 82%
20. Galle 83.5%
21. Matara 83.5%
22. Hambanthota 84%
81.52% all island
Final Analysis- Nov 13 (Strictly for release on Nov 14)
IT’S THE CANDIDATE. PERIOD.
After six weeks of tracking polling sentiments interesting insights emerge- many of them unprecedented in SL elections. We have also triangulated the analysis (Via the stratified data) from multiple directions including Rural/Urban, Gender, Age, Ethnicity, Caste and Religion and summarised the findings below.
Final Analysis- Nov 13 (Strictly for release on Nov 14)
IT’S THE CANDIDATE. PERIOD.
After six weeks of tracking polling sentiments interesting insights emerge- many of them unprecedented in SL elections. We have also triangulated the analysis (Via the stratified data) from multiple directions including Rural/Urban, Gender, Age, Ethnicity, Caste and Religion and summarised the findings below.
As reported previously, overall average favouring SP among first time
voters is 55% (Comprising Female 66% and Male 46% to SP). Voters aged
over 60 favours SP by nearly 70% (Comprising approximately Female 63%
and Male 70% to SP). Male voters aged over 60 have swung decisively to
SP particularly in the rural areas.
Although GR is ahead among urban voters (well over 60%), this segment consist of only 19% of registered voters. Almost 81% of voters are rural. A candidate has to convince a majority of the 81% to get to the 50.1% mark. We see SP being ahead in the rural vote across traditional party lines. This is consistent with the cross-party majority support for SP from the Karava, Salagama and Durave sub sectors.
Among ethnicities SP has a commanding majority among Tamils, Muslims and Indian Tamils , averaging 80%. Similarly across religions Tamil Hindu and Muslim support exceeds 80%, with Sinhala Christian (55%) and Tamil Christian (64%).
For GR to win he needs over 62% of the Sinhala Buddhist vote on a overall voter turnout of 82% (with North and East turnout averaging 75%). We estimate GR as not exceeding 56% of this segment. Leakage of some core Buddhist votes to AKD and MS also does not help GR.
Hence, based on multiple analysis over many data points we call the 2019 Presidential elections for SP who will emerge victorious on the first count.
IT IS THE CANDIDATE. PERIOD (Pun unintended).
Although GR is ahead among urban voters (well over 60%), this segment consist of only 19% of registered voters. Almost 81% of voters are rural. A candidate has to convince a majority of the 81% to get to the 50.1% mark. We see SP being ahead in the rural vote across traditional party lines. This is consistent with the cross-party majority support for SP from the Karava, Salagama and Durave sub sectors.
Among ethnicities SP has a commanding majority among Tamils, Muslims and Indian Tamils , averaging 80%. Similarly across religions Tamil Hindu and Muslim support exceeds 80%, with Sinhala Christian (55%) and Tamil Christian (64%).
For GR to win he needs over 62% of the Sinhala Buddhist vote on a overall voter turnout of 82% (with North and East turnout averaging 75%). We estimate GR as not exceeding 56% of this segment. Leakage of some core Buddhist votes to AKD and MS also does not help GR.
Hence, based on multiple analysis over many data points we call the 2019 Presidential elections for SP who will emerge victorious on the first count.
IT IS THE CANDIDATE. PERIOD (Pun unintended).
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